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BRICS has increased its importance and weight in world politics, especially with its last expansion on January 1, 2024. This union, whose growth and activities are closely followed by the European Union and the United States with uneasiness, has become one of the important symbols of the rising east. The starting point of the union is basically to create a new eastern balance against the western bloc formed by the European Union and America which remained the only superpower after the collapse of the Soviets.
In this context, the union, which was established as BRIC in 2006 with the first moves of Russia and China and the participation of Brazil and India, later became BRICS in 2010 with the participation of South Africa. As you might guess, the abbreviation consists of the initials of the member countries. That is Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, respectively.
BRICS Countries
Founded in 2006, the union was born as an alternative to the countries that are the cradle of liberal democracy that dominates the world. In this sense, when we look at the member countries one by one, even if they claim to have democracy, it is obvious that they are governed by systems that we can call autocracy. Please do not forget that the rule of Putin in Russia and the Communist People’s Party in China has continued for decades. In line with that there are criticisms about these countries that they generally implement suppressive and intimidating policies against opposition groups.
Moreover, it could be seen that they do not have a solid legal system with separation of powers. The claim that Russia has democracy is controversial, especially considering that some opposition leaders in Russia cannot participate in elections. We believe that we will understand the issue of democracy and Russia better if we take into account the suspicious death of world-famous opposition leader Navalny in prison. Let us now leave the subject of Russia and democracy and return to our own topic.
What is BRICS?
The history of this group actually dates back to an economist named Jim O’neill. While trying to group or classify economies in 2001, O’Neill, a Goldman Sachs economist, used the acronym BRIC to list 4 countries that have a large geographical area and whose economies are growing rapidly.
These countries also attracted attention with their rich natural resources and high population potential. Jim predicted that these countries would become the largest economies in the world over the next 50 to 60 years for the reasons given. In August 2023, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt were invited to membership by BRICS countries. Other countries except Argentina accepted the invitation and became members as of 01.01.2024.
In this context, it has been a problem that the representation and voice of eastern countries in the liberal West’s supranational institutions and organizations such as the World Bank or the IMF has not increased over the years. Considering all these features, we can say that the BRICS countries have formed a bloc with their management systems close to monarchy and their understanding of management based on single strongman leadership, against the bloc centred on the Western civilization that defends liberal democracy. If we examine the countries that joined this union on 01.01.2024, it would not be wrong to say that these countries are also distant from liberal democracy norms.
BRICS Bank and Currency
The strengthening of the BRICS countries and the expansion of this group is actually strongest form of the message that has been wanted to be given to the West for years. It is also a fact that; although it does not seem possible in the short term, it is expected that the group countries will be a strong alternative to the US dollar if they issue and use their own currency in the medium term. On the other hand, BRICS Bank which is the eastern version of the World Bank and was established in 2014 as an investment bank in Brazil, is strategically important. If this bank is made more functional and efficient, it will make this group more attractive for other countries of the world.
Importance – Future of BRICS
We have been hearing it recently a lot… “America is collapsing and the EU is about to collapse…” “Yes, the stars of the future will be Asian tigers and Eastern countries…” From this perspective, it would be correct to say that the axis of production, capital and money will be shifting from west to east in the next 50 years. On the other hand, in the current situation, the superpower is still America and the European Union continues to be one of the most important political and economic powers. Of course, these countries, which lead liberal democracy, also see that power will be shifting to eastern countries in the next 50 years.
At this point, they are trying to take some both economic and political precautions in this regard. It is also possible to read the Iraq invasion, the Palestine issue or the Russian-Ukrainian War as an east-west conflict in the world or a struggle between democracy and monarchies. We need to point out that in the economic aspect of the issue; Although BRICS countries do not have a common currency yet, they have such plans in the future. In addition, each of the member countries of this group is a member of the G 20.
BRICS countries, which make up approximately 50 percent of the world’s population with the latest expansion, have also approximately 30 percent of the world economy. When we look at it from this perspective, it is very normal for these countries to try to shape world politics or to increase their power in the world’s economy and politics. Moreover, if we think that these countries produce approximately 45 percent of the world’s oil production, we will understand how important an actor this group is.
Russian Impact on the Group
In addition, the fact that Russia will be the term president in 2024 makes western countries uneasy about the group’s activities. At this stage, it should be noted that in the majority of research and reports conducted in the early 2000s, it was estimated that China would be the world’s largest economy in 2050. In addition, it was predicted that at least two of the economies of India, Brazil and Russia would be among the world’s top 5 economies on the same dates. It will be valuable to read the US-China trade wars and former (may be also next) President Trump’s attitude towards China in the light of this information.
2024 Expansion and Impacts!
On the one hand, Russia-Ukraine war and on the other hand, the Israel-Hamas war, which started after Hamas crossed the Gaza Strip and attacked Israeli settlements on October 7, 2023, continues. In addition, the problem of world supply chains being endangered the Houthis’ attack on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, continues. Furthermore, we cannot forget the tension between China and Taiwan in Asia. Considering that the world is drifting into ever-increasing tension, the 2024 expansion of the BRICS group of countries led by Russia and China becomes even more meaningful.
In other words, BRICS countries will change the balance in favour of these countries if Russia sides with Russia in the Ukraine war and Israel side with Palestine in the Palestine conflict. Actually, this is the main reason for concern about the group’s enlargement, which the West, especially the US administration, watches with uneasiness. In this regard, they continue to give intimidating messages to member countries, especially about their efforts to indirectly break the Russian embargo. Considering all this information, the BRICS group, which have increased to a total of 10 members with the expansion in 2024, will increase its “voice” and power both politically and economically in the coming period.
This “voice” will probably cause new conflicts in the international struggle for sharing. In addition, this new situation will increase the tempo of the power struggle between the west which has liberal democracy and the east which is more based on monarchy and single strongman leadership, in the next short period. You can click here for visiting group’s official web page.
Expansion Effects on World
In this sense, if we list the impacts of the BRICS 2024 expansion on world politics and economy:
- Increasing the number of group countries that will allow sanctions to be circumvented within the scope of the Russia-Ukraine war,
- It will shake the throne of the dollar if they issue a BRICS+ currency by becoming an economic alternative,
- In the ongoing war environment in Ukraine and the Middle East, balances shift towards the eastern bloc,
- Politically, the centre of gravity will shift towards the east by 2050 and these countries will have a say both politically and economically.
- It is also estimated that the name of the group will change to BRICS+ in the new expansion situation.
