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As it is known, Russia heavily started to invade Ukraine on the day of February 24, 2022. With this invasion, Russian army moved towards the capital Kiev, from the north, the south at the same time and the Donbass Region from the east. Then, this heavy conflict turned into a regional conflict that continued in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine shortly after the initial attack. Russia’s aim in Ukraine will affect both Caucasus, European and world politics from top to bottom. Therefore, this week we are writing a short review on the causes and consequences of the Russia Ukraine War.
While making these analyses and evaluations, it should not be forgotten that Trump will be sitting in the presidency again in 2025. Donald, who followed a very tough and hawkish policy during his 45th presidency, gave signals during the election campaign that he would follow a softer and more dovish policy in the new term.
Causes Leading to the Outbreak of Russian Ukraine War
After Russia’s annexation of Crimea on March 17, 2014 the long-term tension that started with the Donbass crisis in April 2014 and the Russian Ukraine crisis turned into a war on February 24, 2022. In the words of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, this war, called “a special military operation“, continues as of August 2023. In Russia Ukraine War, the western and US media generally see and consider Putin as the real culprit. They also portray him as a villain with imaginary imperialist aims who wants to revive the old Russian Empire again.
In this context, it is obvious and noteworthy that the continuation of the conflict will damage Russia with more severe sanctions and the reputation of Russia in the international public opinion will have been damaged more and more. From this point of view, it is a well-known fact that the weakening of Russian military power will benefit the United States in the long term. This situation reveals that the continuation of Russia Ukraine War may be a desirable situation for the United States at this stage.
Major Events and Timeline of the Conflict
On the other hand, Russia has been seen as a rightful state that wants to use its right of self-defence by the more moderate Eurasianists. They state that the West and the USA incited Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelensky against Russia in order to weaken Russia in the region. They also say that for the war to end, Ukraine must stay neutral by moving away from the western bloc and that it must give up its NATO membership goal.
In this point it should be underlined that while starting Russia Ukraine War war, which he called a “special military operation” (by the way it is a crime to call this operation a war in Russia), Putin stated that his ultimate aim was to overthrow the pro-Nazis and fascists in the government of Ukraine. He also wanted to remove weapons and soldiers from Ukraine and tried to remove it from being a threat to Russia in the region and world politics arena.
Close relations between Russia and Ukraine originally date back to the Kazakh Khanate period in the 19th century. Good relations at that time deteriorated at the beginning of the 20th century, when Russia seized Ukraine in 1920 during the Soviet Socialist rule. It is very important that the people of these two states which are close to each other in terms of race and language, mostly belong to the same faith. In a televised speech shortly before the Russia Ukraine War, Putin referred to these historical ties and said that Ukraine is actually a part of Russia.
He also tried to legitimize the war by claiming that Ukraine was separated from the motherland during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Historical Background of Russia Ukraine Relations
However, Ukraine, which lived under the rule of Russia from the 1920s to the 1990s, has been living as an independent state as a separate nation since the collapse of S.S.R.C. In this concept, it should be emphasized that the course of Russia Ukraine War and Ukraine’s resistance show that Putin’s statements about historical relationship between these two countries have no effect on the Ukrainian state and nation. Therefore, Ukrainians see themselves as a separate state and nation from Russia and they want to continue to live in this way.
If we look at the developments from the point of view of Russia, as can be seen from the map, Ukraine has an existential and a very critical geopolitical importance for Russia. Especially if Ukraine becomes a NATO member after Georgia almost completely falls under the influence of the West, Russia will be surrounded from the west and south. At this point, it is a well-seen fact that the Crimea and the Donbass region have a strategic importance for Russia, and the Russian state mind will probably not give up on them.
On the other hand, according to Putin, the West and the USA had lied to Russia about NATO expansion strategy. According to him, during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the western world promised Russia that NATO would not expand towards Russia if the transition period was bloodless. However, NATO has not kept its word by showing three major enlargements against Russia since 1990 and has come closer to encircling Russia.
At this point, the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member was a obvious cause of war for Russia and Putin. From this point of view, according to them, the Russia Ukraine War will only end if Ukraine abandons its NATO membership and becomes neutral.
Conclusion: Lessons Learned and Future Outlook
In order to understand why Russia attacked Ukraine, we need to evaluate the Russian claims both the western perspective and from a historical perspective. At this point, we have to remind you of Russia’s condition that “the Crimea and Donbass regions should be accepted as Russian lands by Ukraine and West” in order to end the conflict. As a result, it seems that it will not be easy to end this low-paced war in a short time and for Russia to give up Ukraine, Crimea and Donbas region.
In addition, when we consider the strategic reasons of the war, it is clear that the fact that Russia has not yet achieved the desired success in Ukraine will not be a sufficient reason for Russia’s withdrawal.
On the other hand, some Russians were angered by the violent attacks on Ukrainian civilians, whom they saw as a kindred and close people. In this context, convincing the Russian people to go to war was also a very difficult test for Putin. As a result, in the medium term, it seems likely that this conflict, which has caused heavy losses and damage to both sides, will end with mutual concessions made by both sides under the mediation of the West/US. In direct proportion to this, it is clear that Donald Trump, who won the 2024 US Presidential elections with a landslide, promised to end this conflict very soon.
In other words, he made a very assertive speech by stating that if he was elected president, he would end the Russia Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas conflict within 24 hours by just making phone calls. In addition, the 47th president stated that Taiwan should pay for its own defense and that he would reduce the aid it provided to Ukraine.
Has World War III Started or When?
Frankly, all strategists in the world are looking for an answer to this question. Some say that the Russo-Ukrainian War was actually the spark for a world war, just like the assassination of the heir to Austria-Hungary by a Serbian nationalist in World War I. Others claim that we should not be so emotional and that although there are regional conflicts, we are still far from a world war.
On the other hand, the rise of the far-right in Europe and many parts of the world and the rise of populist right-wing politicians to power resemble the environment before World War II. Yes, there is no environment like Mussolini or Hitler in Europe right now, but at this rate, no one can guarantee that there will not be a similar environment in 10 years. In other words, when Trump becomes the US president again in the elections held at the end of 2024 and racist leaders continue to come to power in Europe and Asia, the political environment becomes even more dangerous. In this environment, everyone should be cautious and cooperation and dialogue between countries should be increased.
