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As it is known, Russia heavily started to invade Ukraine on the day of February 24, 2022. With this invasion, Russian army moved towards the capital Kiev, from the north, the south at the same time and the Donbass Region from the east. Then, this heavy war turned into a regional conflict that continued in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine shortly after the initial attack. Russia’s aim in Ukraine will affect both Caucasus, European and world politics from top to bottom. Therefore, this week we are writing a short review on the causes and consequences of the Russia Ukraine War.
How Russian Ukraine War Started?
After Russia’s annexation of Crimea on March 17, 2014 the long-term tension that started with the Donbass crisis/war in April 2014 and the Russian Ukraine crisis turned into a war on February 24, 2022. In the words of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, this war, called “a special military operation“, continues as of August 2023. In this war, the western and US media generally see and consider Putin as the real culprit. They also portray him as a villain with imaginary imperialist aims who wants to revive the old Russian Empire again. In this context, it is obvious and noteworthy that the continuation of the war will damage Russia with more severe sanctions and the reputation of Russia in the international public opinion will have been damaged more and more.
From this point of view, it is a well-known fact that the weakening of Russian military power will benefit the United States in the long term. This situation reveals that the continuation of the war may be a desirable situation for the United States at this stage.
Why Russia Attack Ukraine?
On the other hand, Russia has been seen as a rightful state that wants to use its right of self-defence by the more moderate Eurasianists. They state that the West and the USA incited Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelensky against Russia in order to weaken Russia in the region. They also say that for the war to end, Ukraine must stay neutral by moving away from the western bloc and that it must give up its NATO membership goal. In this point it should be underlined that while starting this war, which he called a “special military operation” (by the way it is a crime to call this operation a war in Russia), Putin stated that his ultimate aim was to overthrow the pro-Nazis and fascists in the government of Ukraine.
He also wanted to remove weapons and soldiers from Ukraine and tried to remove it from being a threat to Russia in the region and world politics arena.
Close relations between Russia and Ukraine originally date back to the Kazakh Khanate period in the 19th century. Good relations at that time deteriorated at the beginning of the 20th century, when Russia seized Ukraine in 1920 during the Soviet Socialist rule. It is very important that the people of these two states which are close to each other in terms of race and language, mostly belong to the same faith. In a televised speech shortly before the war, Putin referred to these historical ties and said that Ukraine is actually a part of Russia. He also tried to legitimize the war by claiming that Ukraine was separated from the motherland during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The Invasion Legitimate?
However, Ukraine, which lived under the rule of Russia from the 1920s to the 1990s, has been living as an independent state as a separate nation since the collapse of S.S.R.C. In this concept, it should be emphasized that the course of this war and Ukraine’s resistance show that Putin’s statements about historical relationship between these two countries have no effect on the Ukrainian state and nation. Therefore, Ukrainians see themselves as a separate state and nation from Russia and they want to continue to live in this way.
If we look at the developments from the point of view of Russia, as can be seen from the map, Ukraine has an existential and a very critical geopolitical importance for Russia. Especially if Ukraine becomes a NATO member after Georgia almost completely falls under the influence of the West, Russia will be surrounded from the west and south. At this point, it is a well-seen fact that the Crimea and the Donbass region have a strategic importance for Russia, and the Russian state mind will probably not give up on them.
On the other hand, according to Putin, the West and the USA had lied to Russia about NATO expansion strategy. According to him, during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the western world promised Russia that NATO would not expand towards Russia if the transition period was bloodless. However, NATO has not kept its word by showing three major enlargements against Russia since 1990 and has come closer to encircling Russia.
At this point, the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member was a obvious cause of war for Russia and Putin. From this point of view, according to Russia, the war will only end if Ukraine abandons its NATO membership and becomes neutral.
Russian Withdraw from Ukraine?
In order to understand why Russia attacked Ukraine, we need to evaluate the Russian claims both the western perspective and from a historical perspective. At this point, we have to remind you of Russia’s condition that “the Crimea and Donbass regions should be accepted as Russian lands by Ukraine and West” in order to end the war. As a result, it seems that it will not be easy to end this low-paced war in a short time and for Russia to give up Ukraine, Crimea and Donbas region. In addition, when we consider the strategic reasons of the war, it is clear that the fact that Russia has not yet achieved the desired success in Ukraine will not be a sufficient reason for Russia’s withdrawal.
On the other hand, some of the Russians were enraged by the violent attacks on the civilian Ukrainians, whom they saw as a related and close people. In this concept, convincing the Russian public to war was also a very difficult test for Putin. To conclude, in the medium term, it seems likely that this war, which inflicted heavy losses and damages on both sides, will come to an end with the mutual concessions to be made by both sides under the mediation of the West/USA. As the 2024 US Presidential elections approached and there is discussion about whether Biden would withdraw his candidacy, Trump made a statement.
The presidential candidate, who said that if he is elected president, he will end the Russia Ukraine War and Israel Hamas conflict within 24 hours by just making phone calls, spoke very assertively. Additionally, the 45th president said that Taiwan should pay for its own defense and stated that he would also reduce aid to Ukraine.
Has World War III started?
Frankly, all strategists in the world are looking for an answer to this question. Some say that the Russia-Ukraine War was actually the spark of a world war, similar to the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian crown prince by a Serbian nationalist in World War I. Some people claim that we should not be so emotional and that although there are regional conflicts, we are still far from a world war.
On the other hand, the rise of the far right in Europe and many parts of the world and the coming to power of populist right-wing politicians resemble the environment before World War II. Yes, there is no environment like Mussolini or Hitler right now in Europe, but at this rate, no one can guarantee that there will not be a similar environment in 10 years future. In other words, if Trump becomes the US president in the elections at the end of 2024 and racist leaders come to power in Europe and Asia, the political environment will become even more dangerous. In this environment, everyone should be prudent and cooperation and dialogue between countries should be increased.
