Trump is Winning: The 47th President of the US!

There are less than five days left until the US Presidential elections on November 5, when the whole world is focused on. On one side, the Republican candidate, the 45th President Donald Trump, and on the other side, the surprise Democratic candidate, the current Vice President Kamala Harris, will compete to become the 47th President of the United States. In this context, it is a fact that everyone accepts that we are facing the most neck-and-neck election in American history. It is clear that we are experiencing the most interesting campaign period in history so far. After all, there have been two assassination attempts against a presidential candidate and for the first time, the current president has withdrawn his candidacy due to his health condition. It is clear that Trump is winning but how?

In fact, according to polls in the last three months, the needle has turned in both directions. For example, while the Democratic candidate was ahead in the September-October 2024 period, the Republicans seem to be ahead in November. So, can we say that Trump is winning this closely contested election with his breakthrough in the last hundred metres? Or will Kamala make a last-minute attack and get ahead again?

At this point, it should be noted that one of the strangest situations of the period we are going through is the situation that polling companies have fallen into. Under normal circumstances, we would expect polling companies to highlight a candidate during this period when we are entering such an important election. On the other hand, during this election period, polling companies are only stating that we will experience the most neck and neck election in history.

Now, we present the reasons for a potential D.Trump winning.

Trump is Winning (Is He?)

First of all, we should state that most US voters do not want to vote for either candidate. However, they state that they prefer one of two bad candidates in their voting decisions. In this context, Trump’s overwhelming superiority continues in the middle and rural areas where conservative Republicans predominate, while Harris’ success continues in the urban areas further west and north.

At this point, it is a serious claim that polling companies are trying to push undecided voters towards Democrats by showing the votes of Donald and the Republicans slightly lower than they actually were, just like they did in 2016. If you recall, in 2016, while everyone was certain that Hillary Clinton would win before the election, the election was completed with a result that would shock the entire world. In fact, it was emphasized at that time that even the American deep state was surprised and that they were not ready for the possibility of a candidate with whom they had difficulty in getting along.

In this concept, it is now an accepted fact that Donald Trump is ahead by at least 1% as we approach November. It is a fact that his pros as well as his opponent’s cons have a share in this success. We will discuss the disadvantages of his opponent under a separate heading. Now let’s list the reasons why Trump is winning:

• The economy was in much better during his term.
• The conservative vein that emerged due to the world entering into bigger and bigger conflicts.
• The perception of being a victim due to being subjected to two assassination attempts.
• Attracting the middle class with his statements that he would reduce taxes,

Swing States

• Attracting workers by stating that he would build import walls and ensure that American workers earn more,
• Gaining the support of legal immigrants after stating that he would prevent undocumented immigrants.
• Attracting undecided “swing states” voters due to his slight lead in the polls right now.
• Appearing to be ahead in five of the seven swing states. The winner of the swing states generally wins the US elections.

It is possible to add many additional items, large and small, to these basic reasons, but in our opinion, these are the basic reasons that will bring the US 2024 Presidential elections to the Republicans and why “Trump is winning” at least in terms of their advantages and successes.

Why is Harris Losing?

There is a reason why we called her a surprise candidate at the beginning of our article. If you recall, incumbent President Joe Biden was forced to withdraw from candidacy after his scandalous CNN live debate performance in June. If we go back to that date, it was too late for Democrats to nominate a new candidate and introduce him to the public in the short time left. In the case of such a surprise development had not happened, Obama, who is still very strong in the Democratic Party, would probably have prepared his wife Michelle Obama for candidacy. Additionally, it should not be forgotten that both of them took to the field during the presidential campaign.

From this perspective, Kamala’s votes were initially increased by former president and his wife taking to the field for her. In fact, with the young candidate wind blowing after Biden, Harris, who had gained a lead of about five points in the polls, was started to be viewed as the 47th American President. So, what happened that we have come to the point of Trump winning five days before the election?

At this point, since we almost certainly consider Kamala Harris to lose this election, we would like to list the reasons for her loss in advance:

• Since she is the vice president of the current president, Biden’s shortcomings are also added to Harris’ account, which is the biggest problem.
• Because high inflation and the decrease in the purchasing power of the American people are politically the responsibility of the current president, Kamala is also experiencing a great loss of votes as her vice president.
• Her support from Hispanic and black voters is much less than that of previous democratic candidates. This has almost completely reduced her chances of winning the election.

Robert Kennedy Impact

• Her inability to take a strong position on abortion, the Israel-Gaza war, Russia-Ukraine and other current issues.
• Robert Kennedy, who has strong Democratic support and comes from the Kennedy family, announced that he would support his opponent Trump instead of her. It should be noted at this point that Kennedy, who announced that she would be an independent candidate, reached a total of 5 percent of the vote in some polls.
• Her support in swing states has decreased.
• Legal immigrants in the country withdraw their support from him because he has a flexible view on undocumented immigrants

Apart from these articles, it is possible to list some articles, albeit small-scale.

Trump is Winning the Polls?

If you recall, pollsters performed very poorly both in the 2016 D. Trump victory and in the 2020 Biden victory. In addition, the red wave and definite Republican victory they talked about in the 2022 Mid-Term Elections did not turn out to be true. After all these recent defeats, polling firms’ predictions for the 2024 presidential election were eagerly awaited. It is not known whether it is due to past bitter experiences, but pollsters are avoiding making definite statements about this election.

They still cannot go beyond stating that the election is neck and neck and is the closest election in American political history. At this point, it should be noted that although the number of votes cast by mail has decreased during this period, it may take almost a week for us to learn the final result of the election. If the definite winner of the election is announced in a week and there is a very close difference, chaos is also possible. The American people, who remember the incident that took place on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 and went down in US history as a coup attempt, are very sensitive about this issue.

So, what is the latest situation in the polls conducted five days before the election? It is time to list the facts underlying our claim that Trump is winning.

Here is the swing states:

• Arizona
• Georgia
• North Carolina
• Pennsylvania
• Nevada
• Wisconsin
• Michigan

Trump is leading the race in the first five of these states. This means that he will likely be the 47th US president.

In addition, if we look at the average of approximately 550 polls conducted in the last three months:

– Trump: 287 Electoral Votes

– Harris: 251 Electoral Votes

Electoral College

Finally, we would like to briefly remind you that in the American electoral system, the president is not directly elected by the people. In other words, each state has a delegate count according to its population density, and 538 delegates nationwide constitute the Electoral College. In this sense, the candidate who reaches a simple majority of delegates, which is 270 delegates, wins the presidential race. At this stage, let’s remind you that in 2016, despite falling behind in total votes, D. Trump won the election because he won more delegates. You can think of this issue as the deputies in the parliament electing the president. On the other hand, the people elect the deputies with their votes in the elections, and the deputies elect the president.

In this context, let’s assume there is an election with two cities and two delegates. In a province with a large population but 1 deputy, the candidate who wins the majority wins the deputy, that is, the delegate, of that province. Here, receiving 51% of the votes in that province is enough to win the delegate. At this stage, the other candidate who receives 49% of the votes cannot receive delegates, so this vote is wasted. However, even if a candidate who receives 90% of the votes in the other city receives an overwhelming majority of the votes from that city, they still receive 1 delegate. If we look at the example of these two cities, even if both candidates receive an equal number of delegates, one candidate receives the majority of the votes. In the US election system, receiving the majority of the votes does not make a difference.

Trump is Winning Again!

According to this system, since both candidates receive one delegate each, their votes are equal in the presidential race. In 2016, just like in this example, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton received an overwhelming majority of the votes from the population in some states, but she fell behind in the total number of delegates, so she lost the election. In addition, the Senate and House of Representatives work this way.

On the other hand, one of the most important factors why we say Trump is winning is that we predict that he will be ahead in the number of delegates even though he is behind in the total number of votes. In addition, there is a strong possibility that the American deep state and the polls show him as being behind. After all, the election is in five days and while even 24 hours is a long time in politics, anything can happen in five days.