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The year 2024 was an election year for almost the entire world. Elections were held in almost all countries from the European Union to France, from Brazil to the United States. In this context, the US Presidential Elections on November 5th had a very special place as it is the world’s largest economic and political power. Although pollsters claimed that the race would be neck and neck, the former president went beyond expectations and defeated his opponent Kamala Harris by winning all the swing states. In this context, we will now evaluate the second Trump term and the possible effects of this new period on American politics and the entire world politics, especially Russia, China and the Middle East.
We had previously analysed separately how Trump won and why Kamala lost. We recommend you to read first those articles, if you did not. Firstly, it should be stated at the beginning that countries with such great and deep-rooted traditions have some state policies. These policies are determined in line with the interests of the country, regardless of the political party or leader governing the country or government. In other words, whether the president is Biden or Trump does not affect state policies on some issues.
If you pay attention, the economic policies implemented against China during the Republican era in between 2016-2020 remained the same during the Democrats’ administration, although some of their main points changed. Whether Donald will make many changes in these policies in the new era and his relations with the deep state will be a matter of curiosity.
At this point, the issues that will probably make a mark, are as follows:
- Russia Ukraine War policy
- Relations with China and the trade war
- Israel Gaza and Middle East conflicts
- Polarization of the American People, climate crisis and immigration policies
Second Trump Term and Politics
After his election victory in 2016 that surprised everyone, the most striking issue in his 2024 election victory is that he seems much more mature and prepared than in the past. In this context, the fact that the Republicans won the two houses that make up the US Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate, has made his hand very strong. Naturally, there is no doubt that he will try to make some actions or changes that he tried to do in his first term of presidency but could not because he did not have the power to do.
If you recall, in addition to the pressures he put on the FED chairman and the threats of dismissal during the relevant period, he also received great criticism and fought over the appointment of high judges. Reading our book review of How Do Democracies Die? which tells the story of that period, will make it easier for you to move on to this article.
The second Trump term and presidency started, although not officially, from the election night. During this period, the thing he should pay the most attention to is the unity and solidarity of the people. The tweets sent by citizens who moved to Canada or Australia after his election victory became quite popular. In societies where such populist leaders emerge, a polarized people is the most important problem. In this context, the new president needs to be more sensible on this issue and keep the divided masses together.
Kennedy and Musk Impact!
At this very point, if we take into account the black, Hispanic or immigrant elements of the American people, it is obvious that his “nationalist” discourses will not form the cement of society. In this sense, he needs to use a more moderate and embracing language in domestic politics in the new period. On the other hand, the appointments he has made so far, especially his appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health, are important indicators that he will use the same divisive language in the new period. (Elon Musk’s support is important also.)
This new period will be very decisive in terms of the American people not losing their faith in participatory democracy and the future of their country.
China, Ukraine and Russia
The Russian-Ukrainian War is a conflict that is expected to end in 2025. If we recall the election promises of the new American president, we also remember that he said that he would end this conflict very soon. In a similar manner, shortly after the elections, Putin announced that the war must end. At this point, both the Ukrainian side and the Russians will probably accept the current situation without officially declaring that the war is over. In this case, which we also call the Korean War example, Crimea and the Donbass Region in the east will remain under Russian rule and the war will gradually cool down and end completely within second Trump term years.
This scenario will also be quite suitable for Zelensky, who is now having difficulty finding soldiers and ammunition to fight.
D. Trump has always stated on every platform during his election campaign that he is the best president for Israel. The new president, who frequently emphasizes that he is the president who declared Jerusalem as the capital and increased aid to the Jews the most, also stated that he will continue to protect Israel in the Middle East. In this context, he also stated that if the prisoners in Gaza are not released, he will make all the countries in the region pay the price.
In light of all the information, it is a fact that the US dominance and Netanyahu’s influence in this region will increase even more in 2025 and beyond. Although he stated that he will stop the wars in the region before the election, this situation seems very difficult in the short term.
China is also Important!
As for China, it is possible to say that more difficult days await the world economy. Donald, who started trade wars in his presidency first period and claimed that China was exploiting the US economy, will corner China in the new period regarding foreign trade tariffs, taxes and quotas, including intellectual property rights, steel and aluminium.
On the other hand, the Asian giant, which has an increasingly larger place in the world economy, will not hesitate to make counter-moves. This will pose a serious threat to the global economy.
Migration and Climate Policies
The immigration issue, which made Harris lose a lot of votes, had the exact opposite effect on Trump. Strangely enough, there was a significant increase in the votes given to the Republican Party by legal immigrants, black and Hispanic citizens living in the USA in the last election. In other words, he is a president who has gained the favour of not only the white male middle class voters but also the general public and increased his legitimacy.
However, the new president, who does not find the Paris Climate Conference and the KYOTO agreements “fact”, will probably continue to say that the climate crisis is a lie made up by globalists in the new term. In other words, the second Trump term, which will cover the 2025-2029 period, will probably not be different from the first term in terms of climate policies.
The Mexican border issue is an even more controversial issue. Although he stated that he would build a wall on the border and get the money for this wall from them, and he could not get the money, it is clear that he will continue such populist discourses in his new term. In this period, parallel policies will continue with the first term regarding both the issue of immigrants and climate policies.
Ultimately, the second Trump term will run parallel to the first term. At this point, the Republican Party, which will focus on tax advantages for the working class and production growth, will want to create an infrastructure that will win the 2028 elections by being successful in these issues and in combating inflation. The biggest obstacle they face on this path will be the populist and divisive attitude of their own leaders.
Second Trump Term Issues
Ultimately, the second Trump presidency era will be turbulent, as his first term was full of conflicts and debates. Accordingly, he will have to deal with many political, economic and social problems after the inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2025.
If we list the topics and actions of the new President D. Trump term:
- • Domestic policy: Continuation of anti-immigrant and divisive rhetoric.
- • Foreign policy: Ending the wars, especially in Russia and Gaza. In addition, it will be aimed to increase international pressure on Iran.
- • Economy: In the 2025-2029 period, the fight against inflation will continue and the income of the middle class will be increased.
