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2024 is an election year for almost all important countries and global actors as those who follow world politics closely know. In this context, presidential elections will be held in the USA on November 5, 2024. At this point, we recommend that you first take a look at our article, “Can Trump Win”, if you have not read it yet? As we approach November, Super Tuesday where the most critical primaries before the US presidential election, will take place on March 5. In the United States, presidential candidates are determined by the primaries held by the republican and democratic parties in each state. In addition, these parties give permission primary elections to be hold only 4 states until March. This is exactly why the month of March becomes very important. The primaries called Super Tuesday actually comes from this tradition.
The rivalry between the Northern and Southern states has actually been known since the American Civil War. There is actually a little bit of this competition behind the concept of Super Tuesday. First of all, before the 1988 presidential elections, the southern states wanted to make themselves more decisive in order to prevent the dominance of the Northern states. For this purpose, these states which collectively decided to hold primary elections on the same day, aimed to make that day very strategic and important. Of course, this event later included the northern states and became a tradition in American politics, turning the Tuesday of the first week of March into Super Tuesday.
Although it is not what the democrats and southern states aimed for, Super Tuesday has traditionally played a decisive role in US elections. Before discussing this issue in detail below, we would like to briefly summarize the current situation in American politics.
US Politics Divided in Two!
In the US, the presidential race is traditionally between the two major parties.
On one side, there is the Democratic Party under the leadership of the current president Biden, which:
- Attaches importance to global relations,
- Advocates state intervention in the economy,
- Prioritizes the fight against the climate crisis,
- Has a more liberal understanding,
- Believes in international cooperation.
On the other hand, there is the republican party of the 58th US President Trump, which is
- More conservative,
- A nationalist and
- Opposes state intervention in the economy and tax increases.
In our previous article, we stated which candidate would be luckier in the election that will take place on November 5 and could be the 60th US president. On the other hand, at this point it is becoming increasingly clear who the Republican candidate will be. The presidential race started with more than 15 candidates and most of these candidates have withdrawn as of March 2024. Currently, the 58th American President of the Republic, D. Trump, and Nikki Halley are entering the final phase of “GOP nomination”, also known as Super Tuesday, in terms of becoming the Republican candidate. However, on the other side, as the incumbent president in the traditional way – except bad health conditions – the natural candidate of the Democrats will be Biden.
Nikki’s Defeats!
Former governor Nikki Haley, who suffered a heavy defeat in her home state in the South Caroline primary, said: “I will not withdraw my candidacy, regardless of the outcome here.” In other words, Halley stated that he will enter the Super Tuesday Republican Party primaries, which will take place simultaneously in 15 states in the USA on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. The former governor also stated that although he was defeated in his hometown, “40 percent is not a small rate at all and the voters wanted a different candidate.”
Now let’s focus on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024, when things will be almost certain and briefly talk about its place in the American Election tradition.
What is Super Tuesday?
As is known, according to US election laws, American voters do not directly elect the president with their own votes. In this context, voters first elect an “electoral college” and then this board elects the American President. Relatedly, there are a total of 538 members of the Electoral College and the candidate who reaches 270 board delegates is elected as the president of the United States. Before this, both democratic and republican parties choose their own candidates. Traditionally, the natural candidate of that party in the election is the current president, whichever party holds the presidency at that time. On the other hand, the candidate of the other party is determined through primaries. These primaries generally start about 1 year before the election. Essentially, these primaries start one by one, increasing by March.
Primaries are held in at least 15 states on the first Tuesday of March and that’s why Americans call that day Super Tuesday. Generally, based on the results of that day, a person’s candidacy for the US presidency is almost certain. For example, if Trump wins all 15 state primaries that will take place on Tuesday, March 5, 2024, Trump’s candidacy for the presidency of the Republican Party will be 99 percent certain. Of course, after the primaries end in June, the final result will be announced officially at the Republican National Convention. This congress, abbreviated as RNC is expected to take place in July 2024.
In this context, the names of the states that will be competed in the Republican Party Super Tuesday primaries which will be held on Tuesday, March 5, are as follows:
- Alabama,
- Arkansas,
- California,
- Colorado,
- Maine,
- Massachusetts,
- Minnesota,
- North Carolina,
- Oklahoma,
- Tennessee,
- Texas,
- Utah,
- Vermont,
- Virginia.
Before Super Tuesday
The Republican primary elections to nominate candidates before the presidential elections continue at full speed as we approach Super Tuesday. In this step, another Republican candidate, Nikki Haley, suffered a major defeat in the primaries of South Caroline, which is considered her home state and where she was governor between 2011 and 2017, with taking only 40 percent of votes. Trump, who did not even mention his republican opponent’s name in his victory speech, implied that his only opponent was Joe Biden and said, “We will go to Joe Biden on November 5, 2024, we will look into his eyes and say you destroyed our country! You’re fired Joe!” As we can see from here, Trump now sees himself as the direct Republican presidential candidate.
According to BBC commentators, Nikki Haley is also aware of this situation. However, he is waiting on the bench in case of a legal obstacle against Donald, which is likely to come at any moment. If Trump is prevented from running for presidency because of the ongoing legal cases in this direction, Nikki will become the natural candidate of the Republicans. On the other hand, in Fox TV’s interviews with Republican voters during the South Carolina primary election, it was seen that the people saw Donald Trump as a saviour that they voted because he had been wronged in the past and that they voted because he was a nationalist who cared about Americans’ interests. Republican voters state that they find Haley closer to Democrats as a candidate who is close to globalists, open to international cooperation.
In this context, it should be noted that Donald Trump has won all of the primaries so far.
The primary election states he won are as follows:
– Iowa
– Nevada
– New Hampshire
– South Carolina
12th March is Crucial
Donald, who won a total of 63 delegates from these four states, will officially become the Republican presidential candidate and rival Joe Biden if he wins 173 more delegates. Considering these calculations, the earliest date for Trump’s Republican candidacy to be finalized is March 12, 2024.
So, probably on that date, the Republican candidate will be determined. On the other hand, if there is no setback in the health situation, the Democratic candidate will be Joe Biden.
Trump vs Haley Super Tuesday?
Campaign donations are a very important indicator in American elections. In this context, campaign officials state that it is noteworthy that Nikki Haley collected approximately 20 million USD in donations in January, far ahead of Trump. This shows that she is still an important candidate even though his chances have fallen a lot. However, exit polls show that voters in South Carolina stated that the biggest problem of the US was “the economy and the borders”. Additionally, voters state that Haley is weak on these issues and therefore does not inspire confidence in them. This situation weakens her chances of becoming a presidential candidate republicans naturally.
On the other hand, there is a fact that the economic situation is not as positive as US citizens “feel” and the Trump era was a relatively better period in the memory of the American people. This increases his chances of success against Joe Biden if he defeats Nikki in Super Tuesday and becomes republican candidate in July RNC. At this point, it should be noted that if no blocking decision is made in the current cases, there is a strong possibility that Donald Trump will both become the Republican presidential candidate in July and subsequently the 60th American President as a result of the US Presidential Elections. If we were to make a final summary, first of all, it is expected that Trump will win the March 5 primaries with a great weight and majority.
60th President is Trump?
By the way, let’s not forget that Biden, who won the Democrats’ Super Tuesday election before the 2020 presidential elections, became the Democrats’ presidential candidate after this advantage. In other words, it should be noted that March 5 will be a very effective and decisive day for the Republicans to determine their candidates.
At this point, Donald has an age, health advantage and economic performance advantage over Joe Biden and these situations put him in a very advantageous position in the next presidential election.
