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With the November 5th American presidential election just days away, the question of who will be the 47th president of the United States, Harris or Trump, is becoming more popular every day. As it is known, while it was expected that the former president Donald would easily win this election by defeating Biden, things changed after the current US president withdrew from the race. Especially after the lively debate at the beginning of September, Kamala increased her votes considerably. Despite this, we still cannot see either candidate as a definite winner. It seems that; until the election takes place and the results are finalized, we will not be able to see the victory of either candidate as a definite victory.
At this point, we wanted to evaluate the latest status of the presidential candidates, especially their promises in the field of economy and their neck-and-neck status in the latest election polls for you. As we have stated before, we have no intention of supporting any political tendency here. Our aim is to analyse the chances of both Democrats and Republicans in the race by evaluating their pros and cons together. By the way, it should be noted that in the latest poll by ActiVoteUs, the Democrats’ candidate received 53 percent of the votes.
Let us not forget that the views of both candidates and the masses they represent are different on issues such as the economy, the climate crisis, the immigration problem, the Russia-Ukraine War and the occupation of Gaza. This is a situation that will directly affect the election result.
Trump for the Presidency
If you recall, after the first live debate of the year held just 3 months ago, we were certain that Trump would become the 47th president of the United States in November. After Biden’s very poor performance, even his closest supporter, former Democratic President Obama, said he should withdraw. His withdrawal and nomination of Vice President Harris changed all the balances. From that day on, D. Trump started a really enthusiastic campaign.
On the other hand, the fact that he was facing a much younger and more dynamic female candidate made it difficult for him. Although he said at the beginning, “Beating her will be easier than beating sleepy Joe.” Things did not go as he wanted. The Republican candidate, who has been trailing in recent polls, albeit by fractions of a point, has been making a great effort to impress middle-class voters in swing states.
In this context, before answering the question of Harris or Trump, it is possible to list Donald Trump’s election campaign headlines and pros and cons as follows;
- He has made a promise that seems small when viewed from the outside, but is important when you consider the structure of the American people, such as removing the tax on tips. He will also remove the tax collected from an important segment such as Uber drivers.
- He stated that he will impose an additional 20% customs duty on all imported goods. This is a promise that appeals to domestic producers and especially the American working class.
- Time will show how much this promise of Trump, who said that he will immediately reduce interest rates and end the “devastating inflation crisis” with this method, matches the economic realities.
Harris or Trump Issues
We would like to talk about his political promises, other than the outrageous promises of the Republican presidential candidate coming from a conservative right-wing tradition, such as his statement that he will release UFO footage. He promises to end the Russia-Ukraine war immediately if he is elected as the 47th president of America. In other words, he also states that he will cut off the US aid exceeding 54 billion dollars annually to Ukraine by meeting with Putin, who some consider to be “unnecessarily” sincere, and end the war, and use this amount for his own people. Our candidate, who thinks that Ukraine should reach an agreement with Russia, also stated that Zelensky should make some concessions on this point.
On the other hand, Donald, who stated that he would end this conflict within 24 hours if he became president regarding the Gaza war, another hot topic of world politics, states that he believes that Israel has the right to protect itself. At this point, since he knows the American conservative vein well, he did not forget to state that Israel will be destroyed within 2 years if Harris wins the election. The issue of immigrants is a separate election campaign tool for him. In the live debate held under the motto Harris or Trump, he did not hesitate to even state that immigrants eat American pets.
He also stated that he will continue to take tough measures against undocumented immigrants and build a wall on the Mexican border. The former president, who called the climate crisis a simple hoax, continues his cynical approach to renewable energy.
Harris: The Next President?
The biggest disadvantage of Kamala Harris, is that the shortcomings of the current government are also written as shortcomings for her. In other words, for example the fact that the inflation that rose after the Covid pandemic has not been fully reduced is one of her most important disadvantages economically. We should also state that her answers to the question of why she still has not been able to solve some of the issues she criticized today as “vice president” are also weak. In this context, it should be noted that the American people think that prices are still high.
The public, who generally see the inflation phenomenon as reasonable to some extent due to the problems in supply chains and the increase in energy prices after the Ukraine war, have punished the current Democratic president and his team for not being able to solve this problem for a long time.
On the other hand, while Trump stated that he would lower prices by using “government power”, Harris’ statement that she would lower prices by encouraging the free market and “competition” was found more realistic by the public. Indeed, the Republican candidate promises to halve energy prices but does not give details of how he will do this, while Kamala offers more realistic solutions.
In addition, Harris, who stated that increasing customs duties by 20 percent, as her opponent stated, would mean an increase in the prices of goods used by the middle class, and this would mean an increase in inflation, stated that she would not increase customs duties. The Democratic presidential candidate stated that she respected Israel’s right to defend itself in the Gaza war, stated that they did not want innocent people to die and that a ceasefire should be established as soon as possible.
Harris or Trump?
Considering that America accounts for more than 15 percent of the world economy and has bases in almost every corner of the world, we can understand the economic, political and military impact of the next president on the entire world. In fact, realistically, on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the American people will not only elect their own president, but will also decide who will be the most powerful leader in the world in a global sense.
In this context, it should be noted that this decision they will make will be a decision that will affect the entire world. At this point, in the latest polls published days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have settled in the 49.5% band and Kamala Harris in the 50.5% band. If we take into account the margin of error and standard deviation of approximately 1 percent in the polls, we need to wait until election day to get an answer to the question of who will be the 47th US President.
The question of Harris or Trump will actually be an answer to the question of Conservative-Nationalists or Democrat-Global NATO supporters. The outcome of the struggle between the Democrats’ candidate, who are on the side of NATO and international cooperation, and the Republicans’ candidate, who are on the side of national and anti-NATO, will also affect the international position of the United States in the next four years. No matter how difficult it is to say anything right now, if we take into account the fact that she is a woman and then the presence of NATO and international cooperation supporters in the world, it would not be wrong to predict that the winner of the election and the 47th US President will be Kamala Harris, unless there are any major surprises.
