Israel-Iran War Possible? June 12–13, 2025 Scenario

The sudden and violent military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 12–13, 2025, signaled a large-scale war that could break out in the Middle East. In this mutual missile strike tension that lasted only a few days, drones, missile attacks and cyber operations were used. First, Israel killed Iran’s nuclear facilities and senior military commanders. Then, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The incident alarmed the international community and brought the question of “How close is an Israel-Iran war?” back to the agenda.

Could the decades-long “shadow wars,” assassinations, cyber attacks and mutual threats one day spiral out of control and turn into an all-out war? In this article, we will consider this frightening but thought-provoking scenario as a thought experiment. What could trigger the risk of a possible Israel-Iran war, what would such a conflict look like and, most importantly, how would it drag not only the region but the entire world into chaos?

Let’s calmly discuss this complex equation and its possible outcomes. In this article, we will examine the background of the conflict, the current situation, and four possible war scenarios in detail.

Potential Causes of War? From Spark to Flame!

• When talking about the risk of an Israel-Iran war, the first and most important trigger that comes to mind is undoubtedly Iran’s nuclear program. Israel has repeatedly declared Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, which it sees as the greatest threat to its existence, as its “red line.” A complete blockage of international diplomacy channels and the receipt of definitive intelligence that Iran is very close to making a nuclear bomb could be the greatest justification for Israel to launch a preventive military intervention. This is one of the most likely scenarios that could ignite the fuse.
• A second dangerous scenario is the “shadow war” that has been going on for years spiraling out of control. A high-profile assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist or senior commander, or a major cyberattack by Iran on Israel’s critical infrastructure could trigger direct retaliation. It could be a matter of time before this low-intensity conflict, which has so far been waged mostly through proxies, suddenly escalates into a hot war where the two states directly confront each other.
• Thirdly; The fuse of an Israel-Iran war could be ignited not directly between the two countries, but also through their proxies in the region. For example, if Hezbollah in Lebanon launches a massive rocket attack on Israel, or if Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq attack Israeli or US targets in the region, Israel could respond by directly holding Iran responsible. The escalation of such a “proxy war” would inevitably draw the main actors into the scene.

Background: A Decade of Shadow War

The enmity between Israel and Iran is not new. For the past decade, the two countries have been avoiding direct warfare and using shadow warfare methods against each other:

• Israeli airstrikes on Iranian bases in Syria
• Iranian support for proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza
• Cyber ​​attacks on critical infrastructure (such as Iranian nuclear facilities and Israel’s water purification systems)
• Assassinations of scientists and military officials

The most visible front in this war has been Syria. Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian territory over the past decade to prevent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its main proxy, Hezbollah, from establishing themselves on the border and transferring advanced weapons systems. In response, Iran has pursued a strategy of surrounding Israel with a regional threat network through its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, which it calls the “Axis of Resistance.”

The other face of the potential for an Israel-Iran war is more like a spy novel. Iran’s nuclear program has been the main target of this shadow war. The most prominent operations of this war included “mysterious” explosions at nuclear facilities such as Natanz, sophisticated cyberattacks like Stuxnet targeting centrifuges, and most importantly, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists. Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad was generally thought to be behind these actions.

Although these mutual operations prevented direct conflict, they kept tensions in the region constantly high.

What the June 12–13 Missile Fires Mean?

The conflict, which brings to mind the risks of an Israel-Iran war, began on June 12 with the Israeli air force’s missile and aircraft attacks on Iran. It was learned that in this attack, which Benjamin Netanyahu called the “Rising Lion“, 6 important Iranian scientists who were running the nuclear program, along with the Chief of the Iranian General Staff, Mohammad Baqeri, and the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, lost their lives in these attacks.

Following this attack, on June 13, 2025, the Iranian army sent hundreds of missiles to the Israeli capital Tel Aviv, and some missiles that penetrated the “Iron Dome” system hit military units and settlements. Following these events, Israel’s attacks on Tabriz and Iran’s attacks on Tel Aviv continue with low and high intensity.

Israel-Iran War: Possible 2025 Scenarios

Below, let’s examine in detail four possible war scenarios that could break out between Israel and Iran:

Full-Scale Regional War

In this worst-case scenario, direct conflict between the two countries would quickly spread throughout the region. Possible developments include:

• Hezbollah enters the picture: Hezbollah, backed by Iran, could fire thousands of rockets at Israeli cities.
• Simultaneous attacks from Gaza: Hamas and other groups join the attack, forcing Israel to fight on two fronts.
• Strait crisis: Iran could target oil transportation and threaten world energy markets.
• US intervention: Washington’s involvement in the war would be inevitable if Iran targeted US bases.
  An Israeli-Iranian war of this kind could lead to massive civilian and military casualties, economic collapse, and political instability.

Cyber ​​and Intelligence Warfare

Israel and Iran are two countries with high technological capacity. Therefore, a scenario in which cyber warfare and intelligence operations are intensified instead of direct Israel-Iran war is also possible:

• Attacks on energy infrastructure: Power plants, dams and transportation networks can be targeted.
• Data leaks and information warfare: Psychological warfare can be carried out through spyware and data leaks.
• Assassinations: Scientists, military officials and strategic experts can be targeted.
  This scenario, although far from physical conflict, can cause serious damage to economies.

Deepening Proxy Wars

Instead of fighting directly, Iran could try to wear down Israel through proxy forces, as it has always done:

• Attacks from Lebanon and Syria: Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias could become more active.
• Attacks from Yemen on Israel: The Houthis, backed by Iran, could threaten Israel across the Red Sea.
• Secret weapons shipments: Iran keeps Israel under constant threat by supporting its proxy forces with heavy weapons.
• In response, Israel could increase its pinpoint operations, especially against Iranian assets in Syria and Iraq.

Israel’s Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear program as an “existential threat.” If Iran comes too close to a nuclear weapon, Israel could launch a limited but effective preemptive strike:

• Targeting facilities like Natanz and Fordow: Deep underground nuclear facilities could be bombed.
• Global markets would be shaken: Oil prices would soar, stock markets would fall.
  Iran would retaliate: Ballistic missiles, proxy attacks, targeting of U.S. bases.
• The UN and international diplomacy would intervene: But an effective solution would be difficult because of the divisions among the major powers.

This Israel-Iran war scenario, while designed as a limited military intervention, could easily escalate into a full-scale war.

Beyond Destruction: Regional and Global Results of War?

The four potential Israel-Iran war scenarios we have listed above are also quite dangerous and risky. While the June 2025 conflicts are still fresh, Netanyahu and Khomeini continue to call for and accuse each other of war. Let’s now analyze the potential consequences of these war scenarios.

The consequences of a possible Israel-Iran war would not only remain within the borders of the two countries, but would also plunge the entire region and the world into chaos with a domino effect. First of all, the massive civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction on both sides would lead to a humanitarian disaster that would last for decades. It would create a picture in which cities were devastated, economies collapsed and millions of people’s lives were darkened.

The war would inevitably spread to the entire Middle East. Hezbollah’s entry into the war would turn Lebanon into a living hell, while the militias’ activation would turn Syria and Iraq into a living hell. Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could also suddenly find themselves in the middle of the war, as they are both among Iran’s potential targets and allies with the United States. The region would enter a spiral of instability never seen before.

Economy, Nuclear Risks and Refugee Crisis

The economic consequences of the Israel-Iran war would be felt by the entire world. As we have already mentioned, a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices to record levels. This would lead to a global wave of inflation, disruption of supply chains, and major crashes on world stock markets, leading to a major global economic recession that would eclipse even the 2008 crisis. All countries dependent on energy would be severely affected by this crisis.

Such a conflict would also trigger a major refugee crisis. Millions of people fleeing the war and destruction would seek refuge in neighboring countries and Europe. This would create incredible pressure on neighboring countries and cause new social and political crises in Europe. It would be impossible to see the effects of the Syrian crisis many times over.

And perhaps the most frightening consequence of the Israel-Iran war would be the risk of a nuclear escalation in the war. Although it started as a conventional war, if one of the parties were defeated or cornered, the option of using nuclear weapons or the possibility of bringing up weapons of mass destruction such as dirty bombs could bring the entire world to the brink of a nuclear disaster.

The Role of Global Powers

The US, Russia, China and European countries have a critical role to play in preventing such a war. In particular:

• The US: As Israel’s greatest ally, it can go into the field at any time.
• China and Russia: They are deepening their economic and military relations with Iran.
• The EU: They are pressing for a diplomatic solution, but their impact is limited.

The rapid but weak response of global powers drew attention in the incident in June 2025. This shows the inadequacy of the international system in regional crises. In other words, new alliances such as the G-20 are needed.

The rehearsal of the Israel-Iran War on June 12-13, 2025, once again proved that the Middle East is a powder keg. Although it is an important development that the parties acted cautiously and prevented a major war, a similar crisis can occur at any time.

A full-scale war can still be prevented. However, this is only possible by keeping diplomatic channels open, controlling proxy forces and clearly defining red lines.

What will determine the future is how effectively global powers can mediate, as well as how these two countries manage the conflict.